CFR Video of Baradei Speech on Iran's Nuclear Program

Given Wednesday's numerous news pieces dealing with Iran - Israel's interception of materials potentially bound for Iran, protests occuring in Iran - I felt it would be appropriate to provide a link to this lecture by Mohamed El Baradei.

Speaking at the New York office of the Council of Foreign Relations, El Baradei again asserted the need for ongoing dialogue and his skepticism of sanctions.

Israel Seizes Ship, Claims Iranian Weapons Destined for Hezbollah

Israelis are claiming that a ship seized close to Cyprus flying under an Antiguan flag contained a large supply of weapons destined for Hezbollah fighters. The seizure comes at a time when Israel is under increased scrutiny over additional settlement constructions in the occupied territories. If any weapons are found and are shown to be from Iran, Israel's contention that Iran poses a continued threat to the Middle East peace process may be viewed as increasingly plausible. For more, go to the BBC.

Iran's Supreme Leader Issues Warning to United States and to Iranian Protestors Against Demonstrating

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme leader warned today that negotiating with the United States would be "naive and perverted." He has rejected numerous attempts at discourse with President Obama and has urged all Iranian officials to reject American attempts at negotiating saying that "they are hiding a dagger behind their back." Warnings were also issued to the opposition movement in Iran which has been extremely active since the election fraud of this summer. Demonstrators were promised that if they protested in favor of apologizing to the US for the hostage crisis or against the Iranian regime they would be met with harsh police suppression. Despite this warning, Iranians still poured in the streets to protest today. To read more, click here Washington Post.

Iranian counter-protesters chant "Death to Dictator," assaulted by security forces

The AP is reporting that Iranian security forces cracked down on protesters today, the 30th Anniversary of the US Embassy takeover. Authorities also initiated electronic interference devices aimed at disrupting mobile phone communication and internet access. Iran had sanctioned anti-US protests outside of the former-US embassy where the crowd was chanting "Death to America." A group of several hundred counter-protesters, though, could be heard denouncing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with chants of "Death to the Dictator." Paramilitary and militiamen responded by clubbing and kicking individuals before firing tear gas. Today's protests were generally noted to be significantly smaller than last summer when a disputed presidential election drove tens of thousands into the streets to protest.

Iranians Ready to Protest Again

On the eve of the anniversary of radical student hostage taking in Iran, defiance is yet again set to be shown by the people. While the Iranian regime constantly sets up government sponsored demonstrations and funnels propaganda at home and abroad, the movement in Iran against the regime has begun to take over the state sponsored demonstration and turn them into demonstrations supporting their own messages. The scheduled demonstration tomorrow is set to be taken over by supporters of the Green opposition movement who want to see more support by Obama and the international community for the respect of their basic human rights and right to choose their own government. As part of their plan, the people are ready to chant slogans apologizing for the hostage crisis and asking for support against the tyrannical regime in power. To read more click here, Wall Street Journal.

IAEA Chief Calls For A Quick Iranian Decision

Mohammed el-Baradei, head of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency says Iran should make a timely response to an offer to export and reprocess much of Iran's nuclear stockpile. Iran had announced that it would export almost three-quarters of its stockpile of low enriched uranium (LEU) for reprocessing into fuel for its medical experimental rector by Russia and France. According to estimates, this would have left Iran without enough LEU to process into a nuclear weapon.

But Iran has been reluctant to take a clear position on its willingness to export any LEU, and had at one point announced it would keep its LEU and buy fuel for its reactor on the open market. All of this comes in the wake of a revelation that Iran has a second, smaller plant for enriching its uranium stockpile.

El-Baradei said that a clear willingness to export its nuclear stockpile would be a powerful gesture from Iran that it was only interested in nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. However, the IAEA chief warned against the use of force to prevent nuclear proliferation, reminding the world community, possibly Israel and the United States specifically, that the invasion of Iraq was premised on a search for weapons of mass destruction.

Read more at RFE/RL.

Freedom of the Press?

In Iran, that's a firm and chilling no. Iranian authorities have shuttered a Tehran business newspaper. The reason? It's "content strayed from the business field." The newspaper, owned by the former Tehran Stock Exchange Director-General Mohammad Hossein Abdo-Tabrizi, has criticized President Ahmadinejad from economics to monetary policies.

While the Newspaper was closed for "repeated violations" of Iranian Press laws, it seems to be just one out of the 100 newspapers and periodicals banned in Iran.

Freedom of the press or security issues? Read here.

Iran Withdraws from Nuclear Agreement

Iran told the United Nations that it plans to not accept an agreement that its negotiators agreed to last week. The plan had called for Iran to remove its uranium stockpile from the country. They would have been left with some uranium, but not enough for a nuclear weapon. This comes after very positive remarks by Iranian President Ahmadinejad, in which he declared that the country was ready to cooperate with the West in regards to its nuclear capabilities. Read further at New York Times.

Revolutionary Guard Arrested in Pakistan

Eleven members of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard and two vehicles were detained in Pakistan by police near the Iran-Pakistan border today. BBC reports that the Guard members were found eight days after a bombing in Iran near the border killed 42 people, including six Revolutionary Guard commanders. Iran claimed that a Jundallah, a Sunni militant group based in Balochistan, Pakistan, had committed the bombing, and had called on Pakistan to investigate.

UN Inspectors Make Their First Visit to Iran's Second Nuclear Enrichment Facility

UN inspectors made their first visit to recently disclosed second nuclear enrichment facility near the town of Qom. According to the Jerusalem Post, the facility is named Fordo, after the village that had the largest percentage of fighters killed in the Iran-Iraq war. Inspectors are expected to complete a report on the site after they leave Iran later this week. This inspection comes the week after a meeting in Zurich where Iran announced that rather than exporting 75% of its low enriched uranium for reprocessing, it would rather buy highly enriched uranium on the open market.

Watch a short Al Jazeera story at Youtube.

Iran, Israel Attend secret Nuclear Meeting in Cairo

Israeli and Iranian atomic energy officials met at a meeting in Cairo last month according to the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission. The meeting was held under the auspices of the Internaltional Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, and included representatives from the Arab League, Morocco, Egypt, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Jordon, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and U.S. and European officials. Iran has denied the report. Read more at the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Haaretz, Xinhua and Al Jazeera.

Iran Nuclear Fuel Agreement Put Forth by IAEA; Good deal for Iran

The IAEA submitted a draft agreement to Iran, France, Russia and the U.S. Although details are unconfirmed, it appears the agreement would involve Iran exporting uranium to France and Russia for enrichment. While in a simple form this plan appears to be concilitory and functional, I have doubts it will really solve the issues at hand. First, Iran believes it has a right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes, which is not addressed by this plan where that right is still only entrusted to other nations. Second, if Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons via uranium enrichment programs secretly, as has been claimed, this plan will have to include new guarentees for verifying the enrichment programs have been halted, a process that has thus far evaded international efforts. From a national defense prospective, Iran is wise to want to acquire a bomb. If it intends to continue developing one in secret, Iran still has no reason to reject the IAEA's proposal. There will no doubt be considerable foreign funding for exportation of uranium and it's enrichment. By accepting the plan, Iran will simultaneously gain less expensive energy bolstered by foreign aid, lift sanctions against it, get back in the world's good graces and, theoretically, be able to continue the covert development of a nuclear weapon. Seems like a good deal.

Iran Might Go Back to France For Uranium Enrichment

Al Jazeera reported that there was a draft document circulating in Vienna today that might allow Iran and France to hammer out a deal to produce highly enriched uranium (HEU) for Iran's medical research reactor. Having earlier rejected France for not going through with a deal to supply HEU, Iran might contract with Russia to enrich Iran's low enriched uranium (LEU) into fuel rods, and then Russia would sub-contract with France.

Earlier this year, Iran promised to export close to 75% of its LEU to France for reprocessing, and avoided harsher UN sanctions. However, Iran said it would process its own HEU if the current talks in Vienna do not yield a satisfactory result, and Iranian foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki said that Iran will not give up its "legal and obvious" right to nuclear technology.

Kian Tajbaksh, Iranian-American scholar sentenced to 12 years in Iranian Jail

Kian Tajbaksh, a noted Iranian-American scholar has been sentenced to 12 years in jail in Iran. Sources inside Iran say that the sentence was for an even longer term. He and fellow scholar, Haleh Esfandiari, were taken to jail in 2007 and released under international pressure and with the help of organizations like Amnesty International. Both Mr. Tajbaksh and Ms. Esfandiari are scholars who worked with the Woodrow Wilson Center. Mr. Tajbaksh was re-arrested in the summer of 2009 during the election upheaval and widely contested Presidential results announcing Ahmadenijad as the winner. Numerous high profile Iranians and Americans have been outraged at the arrest and sentencing of Mr. Tajbaksh because he has refrained from involving himself in political activity and proclaims innocence. To read more, click here Reuters and here FreeKian09.

Iran Announces it Will Not Export Uranium

Iran had announced, after talks on October 1, that it would export approximately 75% of its estimated 1.5 tons of low-enriched uranium (LEU), to be processed by Russian and France into the highly-enriched uranium (HEU) that it needs for medicine and energy production. But the Telegraph reported that on state television today, Iranian officials suggested that they wish to keep their current stockpile of LEU, and import all of the HEU they need. The Telegraph says that the amount of LEU that Iran is known to possess is enough to yield enough HEU for one nuclear weapon, after the lengthly enrichment process.

Iran Claims West Behind Recent Attacks

While Iran meets in Vienna with western countries to talk about its nuclear program, Tehran claims that it has evidence linking Britain and the US with the recent suicide attacks in Iran. The New York Times reported today that the Revolutionary Guard's commander in chief claims to have documents linking the governments of the US, Britain and Pakistan to terrorist bombings in the eastern border city of Pishin, which killed 42 people and injured 28, including members of the Guard.

Jundallah, the People's Resistance Movement of Iran (PRMI), took credit for the two attacks on Sunday. It is based in Iran, but is part of a larger Sunni Baloch group in Pakistan. The PRMI fights for the rights of Sunni Muslims in Iran, and is based in the mountainous border between Iran and Pakistan.

The London Times reports that The US and Britain deny links to these attacks. However, the US, under President Bush, has been giving monetory assistance to the PRMI as far back as 2005, as part of an effort to create an internal Iranian regime change.

ElBaradi Says Nuclear Talks Start Out Well

Mohamed ElBaradei, the IAEA Chief, said that talks today in Vienna between US, Russian, French and Iranian officials have started out well, Al Jazeera reported today. Iran had earlier announced that they would continue to enrich uranium if these talks did not go well.

Iran is claiming the right to further enrich low-enriched uranium (LEU) to produce cancer-fighting isotopes. Iran delayed harsh UN sanctions by agreeing to the current four-party talks and consider sending its low-enriched uranium abroad for further enrichment to produce medical products and to create electricity.

A spokesman for the Iranian nuclear agency said that it is not feasible economically for Iran to enrich LEU it need to produce the 150-300 kg of highly enriched uranium (HEU) it needs to fuel its electric reactor. But, the spokesman said, Iran would produce HEU if the current Vienna talks did not produce the results Tehran wants.

Read more at NYTimes.

Iran rocked by attacks

As talks about Iran's nuclear program are set to resume, suicide attacks have rocked the southeast region of Iran, which borders Pakistan. The attack killed 5 commanders of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards and left dozens dead and wounded. The attacks seem to suggest an escalation between Iran's ruling leadership and the Baluchi ethnic minority. Additionally, Iran has accused the United States, Britain, and Pakistan of supporting the Baluchi.

Ahmadinejad Vows to Avenge Bombing

The Jerusalem Post reports that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has vowed revenge on those responsible for a suicide bombing that killed 5 senior commanders of Iran's Revolutionary Guard and 26 others. Ahmadinejad and Iranian state television have accused foreigners, notably Americans and Britons, of recruiting terrorists to carry out this attack in their ever-present effort to topple the regime. Read more at Al Jazeera, the Financial Times, and the New York Times.

US Missile Shield Talks, Non-NATO Members, and Russia

RIA Novosti reports that Russia has expressed concern about the United States' missile shield talks with non-NATO ally Ukraine.

As we noted in a previous post, some analysts merely viewed previous missile shield agreements with Poland and the Czech Republic as useful bogeymen for Russian policymakers (despite the minimal actual strategic threat). Although Ukraine is not included in NATO, is this merely a cosmetic difference? And if so, is this simple difference enough to give Moscow a new "useful whipping boy?"

If one can answer affirmatively to all of the above, any such US missile-shield talks may offer the Russians the excuse they need to avoid cooperating on UNSC Iran sanctions.