China's Support for Bilateral Talks Between U.S. and North Korea

RIA Novosti reports that the PRC supports bilateral talks between the US and North Korea. The PRC views these talks as a vehicle for reviving the six-party talks which North Korea abandoned in protest in April.

Currently, UN Resolution 1718, adopted in October of 2006, prohibits North Korea from nuclear and ballistic missile tests. However, the North Korean has violated this resolution with a nuclear test, as well as a number of short-range missile launches.

CFR Video of Baradei Speech on Iran's Nuclear Program

Given Wednesday's numerous news pieces dealing with Iran - Israel's interception of materials potentially bound for Iran, protests occuring in Iran - I felt it would be appropriate to provide a link to this lecture by Mohamed El Baradei.

Speaking at the New York office of the Council of Foreign Relations, El Baradei again asserted the need for ongoing dialogue and his skepticism of sanctions.

North Korea Claims Further Nuclear Progress

The North Korean regime has recently stated that it has finished the reprocessing of 8,000 spent fuel rods for weaponized plutonium. If these claims are accurate, this weaponized material can be used in a bomb.

Many are concerned that the Taepodong-2, a long-range missile, is a delivery system capable of striking North America. With the threat of more weapons materials and the reactivation of the Yongbyon nuclear complex, North Korea hopes to force the United States into bilateral talks where it may acquire aid, and possible diplomatic recognition.

Following concerns over CTBT ratification by some more hawkish political leaders (Sen. Jon Kyl in the WSJ, for example), the United States response to North Korea will be closely scrutinized by domestic critics of the Obama Administration.

Bill Moyers' Commentary on the Draft & Afghanistan

On the October 30th edition of his PBS show, television journalist Bill Moyers addressed the tone of mainstream news reporting on involvement in Afghanistan. While this piece doesn't solely focus on national security issues, it also addresses a political third rail - the draft.

This video in no way represents the views of my colleagues on the brief, but it does highlight the stunning lack of political will that bedevils both sides of the isle in Washington.

The lack of political courage affects a number of areas that have national security consequences: intelligence reform, adequate funding for cybedefense, enforcement of/adherence to international law, and our involvement in Afghanistan. Speaking as an individual (and not on behalf of this Brief), I invite you to watch this video, regardless of your agreement or disagreement with Moyers' point of view.

CFR's Dan Markey and the Prioritization of Pakistan

While numerous pundits debate the pros and cons of escalation in Afghanistan, some political leaders, including Vice President Biden, have emphasized the need for a greater allocation of resources in Pakistan. Some policymakers and scholars have called for this change well before the current debate over Afghanistan troop levels; one of which is Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)'s Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan and South Asia, Daniel Markey.

In April of 2009, Markey published a policy paper advocating greater involvement with Pakistan. As a number of escalation proponents now argue, Markey's paper also calls for a shift from the narrow focus on counterterrorism in Afghanistan. Also, while a lot has transpired between the Spring and Fall of 2009, some of the broader policy goals vis-a-vis Pakistan remain valuable. (See page 13.)

Throughout the week, I'll examine a few of the policy prescriptions in this policy paper, and what they would mean for US security interests in South Asia.

CFR Interview on the Afghan Election Crisis

With President Hamid Karzai's announcement that he will participate in a runoff vote on November 7, achieving electoral legitimacy remains a compelling task.

Today at CFR.org, an interview with Peter Manikas yields insight on the roles of the IEC (Independent Election Commission) and the ECC (Election Complaints Commission). The IEC is comprised entirely of members of the Afghan government, and will carry out the runoff election. The ECC is comprised of international and Afghan officials.

As Manikas suggests in the interview, much responsibility for a successful runoff (in terms of procedural integrity) will likely rest on the IEC.

Karzai Likely to Admit to Insufficient Vote Result

As was posted earlier, Afghan President Hamid Karzai is facing increased political pressure following the Afghan presidential election. AP has just reported that Karzai may likely admit that he did not breach the 50% electoral result necessary to avoid a runnoff.

The election results and Karzai's subsequent conduct will have significant consequences for US foreign policy in South Asia, and could potentially have long-lasting effects on US national security interests.

Senate Considering Extension of Patriot Act Provisions

Following the Senate Judiciary Committee's 11-8 vote to extend expiring provisions of the Patriot Act, the full Senate now looks toward extension of these same counterterror measures. For more on the specific provisions, and the related civil liberties/security balancing act, please click here.

CIA's Continued Resistance to Document Release

Friday, the NYT reported on the CIA's continued resistance to revealing documents from 1963 related to Lee Harvey Oswald and a Cuban anti-Castro organization. The article highlights the tension between entrenched national security practices and the Freedom of Information Act.

US Missile Shield Talks, Non-NATO Members, and Russia

RIA Novosti reports that Russia has expressed concern about the United States' missile shield talks with non-NATO ally Ukraine.

As we noted in a previous post, some analysts merely viewed previous missile shield agreements with Poland and the Czech Republic as useful bogeymen for Russian policymakers (despite the minimal actual strategic threat). Although Ukraine is not included in NATO, is this merely a cosmetic difference? And if so, is this simple difference enough to give Moscow a new "useful whipping boy?"

If one can answer affirmatively to all of the above, any such US missile-shield talks may offer the Russians the excuse they need to avoid cooperating on UNSC Iran sanctions.

Lithuania Yet to Decide on Guantanamo Inmates

Globalsecurity.org links to an article by the RIA Novosti news service, on Lithuania's delay to accept Guantanamo inmates. Dalia Grybauskaite, current Lithuanian President, insists that Lithuania's role in secret CIA prisons must be disproven before they will take in any Guantanamo detainees.

Ireland Aids United States in Relocation of Gitmo Detainees

As noted in tomorrow's online edition of the Irish Examiner, Hillary Clinton recently thanked Ireland and Taoiseach Cowen for assisting in the resettlement of two Uzbek detainees. Secretary Clinton pointed out that legal and financial factors have added to the difficulty of closing the facility by President Obama's goal date of January 22, 2010.

A previous NSLB posting has more on the logistical challenges facing the closing of Guantanamo.

Difficulties Facing the Closure of Guantanamo

As the Voice of America news agency reported earlier this week, Attorney General Holder has indicated that full closure of the Guantanamo detention center by late January of 2010 will be difficult. President Obama has previously asserted his aim to close Guantanamo by this date as part of his administration's effort to restore America's international image.

As US officials strive to meet this deadline, strong Congressional opposition to holding Guantanamo detainees on mainland American soil has likely made matters more difficult. Conversely, President Obama's recent acceptance of the Nobel Peace Prize may have added to the political pressure supporting prompt closure of the detention facility.

For more on this story, please visit Globalsecurity.org.

US, the International Community, and Iran Sanctions

While it's trite to say that international legal norms and institutions are only as strong as major international players allow, Iran's nuclear program is a painfully clear example of this principle at work. For Iran sanctions to carry the United Nations' imprimatur and its concomitant influence, the United States must deal with the practical reality of winning Russian and Chinese support.

Winning the support of these two major players is not an easy task, and it involves factors that go beyond the immediate scope of Iran sanctions. The Obama Administration's decision to reverse the Bush policy of missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic comes with the hope that Russia will respond in kind. On one hand, this gesture (at least ostensibly) reduces any physical threat to Russia, meeting the expressed concern of its government. On the other hand, some analysts suggest that Russia's concern is more for outward appearances, and a means of gaining as much American concession as possible. (In the following link, CFR scholar James M. Lindsay describes the Bush approach as more of a “useful whipping boy for Moscow rather than a genuine strategic threat”: http://www.cfr.org/publication/20224/obamas_missile_shield_revision.html)

As major players deal with these and other practical concerns behind implementing sanctions, concerns over the pace of Iranian nuclear development have been further spurred by new information about a nuclear facility outside of Qom. News of the Qom site has fueled calls from American political leaders for quick implementation of sanctions, the possibility of military strikes, and in some cases, regime change. (Youtube clip of Sen. McCain clarifying his position on regime change: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cu74ak5g38)

The Iranian regime claims that this site, though too small for civilian purposes, has violated no provision of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. More specifically, Iran has asserted that its eventual disclosure of the Qom site was in compliance with an NPT provision requiring notification of such a site within 180 days of its establishment. Although it’s possible that Iran has complied with this provision, neither this nor the 2003 cessation of its nuclear weapons program (according to the November 2007 US NIE) change the fact that Iran has continued to develop the capability for the production of fissile material. This existing capability and the difficulties of treaty enforcement suggest weaknesses in the NPT. (For the full text of the NPT, see the following link: http://www.un.org/events/npt2005/npttreaty.html)

What happens if the United States is successful in leading the UN Security Council to implement sanctions? This first step is a heavy task, and may only continue the incomplete effects of sanctions against the Islamic Republic. If recent history is any indicator, political change is not a fait accompli under economic sanctions. On that note, my colleague Mora Namdar will provide some commentary on the human dimension of this issue, and how popular will in the US and in Iran may lend toward international action. Also, early next week, we’ll add a more in-depth post on the provisions of the NPT and how they relate to the Iranian nuclear issue.

Quick Biographies of the Founding Members of the NSLB and current Executive Board

Sean Shank:
Sean is a second year law student at American University's Washington College of Law, and is enrolled in the dual master's degree program with the School of International Service, concentrating on International Security. He graduated from Princeton University with a Bachelor's Degree in East Asian Studies in 2006, focusing on United States-Japanese relations. Sean briefly worked for a newspaper publication in Kanazawa, Japan, acting as an assistant reporter. He is near-fluent in Japanese, and is conversational in Korean. Sean currently serves as the Co-Editor-in-Chief of the AU National Security Law Brief.

Mora Namdar:
Mora, a native Texan of Persian decent, received her undergraduate degree from SMU in Dallas, Texas. She was a double major in Political Science and International Studies was the inaugural graduate of the human rights minor, and also minored in philosophy and fine art. As a student there, she was active on campus as President of Amnesty International, a student senator, Vice-Chair of Student Issue Committee, a member of AXO sorority, the Class of 08 council, and interned for U.S. Congresswoman Eddie B. Johnson. Currently, Mora is a 2nd year law student at the Washington College of Law at American University working on her J.D. and Masters in International affairs. She is Co-Editor-in-Chief of the National Security Law Brief, an SBA senator, member of Phi Alpha Delta legal fraternity, and a member of the Students and Organizations Committee. Mora speaks Farsi fluently, has traveled extensively in Europe, and studied abroad at Oxford University.

George Lynch:
George is the Executive Editor of the American University WCL National Security Law Brief. He was a political science and American history student as an undergraduate student at the University of California, Irvine. He is currently a JD student at American University Washington College of Law, studying international law, and a graduate student at American University’s School of International Service, studying national security policy and diplomacy. He has twice studied abroad; at Kings College, Cambridge University, and as a law student in The Hague. George has volunteered at the Western Center for Law and Poverty in Los Angeles. In his time at WCL he has become a member of the International Trade Law Society, the Pro-Bono Honors Pledge program, and the ABA Student Division.

Jessica Lechuga:

Jessica, a Chicago native, is a second year law student at American University WCL with interests in International Law. Along with joining the International Law Review this year, Jessica is also a member of LaLSA, the Latino/a Law Student Association. Prior to law school, Jessica worked in the career criminal bureau for the New York District Attorney. She began her legal career working on high profile criminal cases serving as an aid to the Assistant District Attorneys. Jessica earned her B.A. in Psychology from New York University.

Richard V. Rodriguez
Richard, a native-born New Yorker with dual citizenship from the United States and Costa Rica, received his undergraduate degree and Masters graduate degree from the State University of New York at Stony Brook. His undergraduate major is in Business Administration specializing in finance and accounting. His Masters degree is in Professional Studies specializing in Human Resources Management. While at Stony Brook he worked full-time for The State Bank of Long Island, a Long Island-based commercial bank, in the Cash Management division. Richard is a second year law student enrolled in the dual JD/MBA program at the Washington College of Law and the Kogod School of Business. He is the Managing Editor / Budget Officer of the National Security Law Brief, member of the American University Journal of Gender, Social Policy & the Law, member of Phi Alpha Delta legal fraternity, member of the Latino/a American Law Student Association (LaLSA), member of the Black Law Student Association (BLSA), Liaison for American University for the Association of Latino Professionals in Finance and Accounting (ALPFA), member of the Hispanic MBA club, and lastly a member of the Hispanic Bar Association in DC. He currently works as a Dean’s fellow for the Legal Rhetoric department’s LAP program and recently worked for the legal division of the Mexican Department of Transportation.

Alexandra Galloway
Alexandra sought involvement in founding the National Security Law Brief because she believes national security objectives and strategies should be a product of laws and theories, not just a military initiative. As a member of the more hawkish wing of the brief, Alex views efficiency, effectiveness and legitimacy as top national security priorities. Her favorite historical figures include Winston Churchill, Thucydides and Aristotle. With an undergraduate degree in Political Science from San Diego State University, Alex is currently a second year law student at Washington College of Law and works for the Department of Homeland Security.

Daniel K. George
Daniel, a second year law student, received his undergraduate degree with honors (cum laude) from Florida State University in 2006. He Majored in Political Science and International Affairs. He is an Orlando Florida native studying the legal aspects of national security, in regard to the role that finance and foreign investment play in national security. He is the Symposium Editor and Communications Chair.

Steve Nabors:
Steve is a second year dual-degree candidate at American University's Washington College of Law and School of International Service. He is pursuing a Juris Doctor focusing on international law and a Master of Arts in Peace and Conflict Resolution. He graduated Phi Beta Kappa from the University of Tennessee majoring in Political Science in 2008 and studied abroad in South Africa in 2006. He served as a Dean's Fellow on Dr. Nicholas Kittrie's Laws of War and Peace project in 2009 and is a current member of the Jessup International Moot Court Team. He is the son and grandson of U.S. Army veterans.